The number of Hoosier high school graduates is expected to drop to about 69,500 within the next two decades after peaking next year at more than 78,000, according to a new study released today.
The Western Interstate Commission for Higher Education°®¶¹app™s report, °®¶¹appœKnocking at the College Door,°®¶¹app found Indiana is among 38 states projected to experience smaller graduating classes following next year°®¶¹app™s anticipated high of 3.9 million °®¶¹app“ a record since data has been available.
The commission is an interstate compact organization that has projected the number of U.S. high school graduates about every four years since 1979.
The anticipated nationwide decline to 3.4 million graduates in 2041 represents a 13% drop from 2023, the last year of reported data. Indiana is anticipated to experience a smaller loss °®¶¹app“ 10% °®¶¹app“ while eight other states, including Illinois and California, are expected to experience more than a 20% decline.
The report said the expectations were based primarily on declines in births.
Demarée Michelau, the commission president, said the projections are concerning for colleges and the workforce, but proactive measures can be taken.
°®¶¹appœStates and institutions have time right now to build on approaches that will work in their contexts to meet current and future workforce needs,°®¶¹app she said in a statement. °®¶¹appœThere are still plenty of potential students out there, including recent high school graduates who historically haven°®¶¹app™t been well-served by our education systems, those who may be leaving college short of a degree, and adult learners, including those with previous college experience.°®¶¹app
Nationwide, the percentage of high school students who immediately enrolled in college after graduation declined to 62% in 2022 from 70% in 2016, the report said.
Indiana°®¶¹app™s college-going rate experienced its steepest drop in at least a generation for the class of 2020, falling to 53% from 59% the previous year. The percentage °®¶¹app“ which was 65% in 2015 °®¶¹app“ has remained at 53% for the graduating classes of 2021 and 2022, according to state data.
Research has underscored the need for an educated workforce.
In 2031, an estimated 72% of jobs nationwide will require postsecondary education or training, including 42% that will require degrees, the report said, citing research from the Georgetown Center for Education and the Workforce.
In northeast Indiana, the number of high-demand, high-wage jobs requiring a postsecondary credential is expected to increase by more than 5,600 over the next five years across 13 occupational groups, according to a joint report released in August by the Don Wood and Questa Education foundations. The Advancing Postsecondary Education and Training Study said about 1,900 of those jobs are related to health care.
Patrick Lane, the commission°®¶¹app™s vice president for policy analysis and research and lead author of the report, said this isn°®¶¹app™t the first time higher education has faced enrollment challenges.
°®¶¹appœThere are strong, evidence-backed approaches that can truly benefit students and also help meet the daunting workforce challenges of the future,°®¶¹app he said in a statement.
Today°®¶¹app™s report highlights potential solutions, including reducing the complexity of college admissions through direct admissions programs and expanding credit for prior learning for adult students.
Credit for prior learning recognizes the college-level knowledge and skills an individual has earned outside a formal classroom setting.
Chris Lowery, the Indiana commissioner for higher education, has described such credit as an important component of his agency°®¶¹app™s Hoosier Opportunities and Possibilities through Education Agenda.
The Indiana Commission for Higher Education in March launched the first statewide model policy guidance about credit for prior learning to encourage the use and expansion of this credit.
Indiana last year launched a pre-admissions program to address the college-going rate. This fall, high schoolers from 390 schools °®¶¹app“ including nearly 50 in northeast Indiana °®¶¹app“ received pre-admission letters that listed which of the 39 participating colleges would accept them based on their grades or SAT scores, pending an official application and completing any additional requirements.
°®¶¹apply, multiple universities have expanded on the statewide initiative by partnering with Fort Wayne Community Schools on direct admit programs. Generally, district students will be automatically admitted or guaranteed admission to Indiana Tech, Indiana University Fort Wayne and Purdue University Fort Wayne if they meet a minimum GPA threshold.
Officials have said such programs reduce barriers, especially for teens who are the first in their family to go to college.
The Western Interstate Commission for Higher Education also encourages officials to address the achievement gaps of underrepresented students because future graduating classes will have higher proportions of such students.
°®¶¹appœWorking to ensure that they have equitable opportunities compared to their peers will be essential for meeting future workforce needs,°®¶¹app the report states.
Research found the number of Hispanic public high school graduates is projected to increase by 16%, to nearly 1.1 million by 2041 from about 944,000 in 2023. They are expected to represent 36% of the total public graduating class, up from 27%.
Multiracial graduates are projected to almost double to about 214,000 by 2041, representing 7% of the total number of public school graduates.
The number of white public high school grads is projected to drop by 26%, to 1.2 million from 1.6 million. They are expected to represent 39% of public school graduates, down from 47%.
Similar trends are expected in Indiana. Its public schools are expected to graduate 89% more Hispanic students °®¶¹app“ 17,558 in 2041 compared to 9,293 in 2023. This population is projected to make up 27% of all public school grads, up from 13%.
About 100 more multiracial graduates are projected in Indiana, a 4% increase.
The number of white Hoosier public school graduates is projected to drop by 25%, to 36,174 from 48,034. They are expected to represent 55% of the class, down from 68%.
Such demographic data was not available for private schools.
